Scientists: Obama's election may reduce terrorism

Will Barack Obama's election make terrorists less eager to strike? A data analysis released Thursday suggests it could make a difference. In the Science magazine study, researchers Alan Krueger of Princeton and Jitka Maleèková of the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Science in Prague looked at terrorist attacks in nine countries, including the U.S., and their relation to public opinion in India, Middle Eastern and North African nations. "We found a greater incidence of international terrorism when people of one country disapprove of the leadership of another country," concludes the study.

The study relied on National Counter Terrorism Center data and Gallup World Poll results. "The United States and United Kingdom had the highest average disapproval rating across all countries (71% for both countries), whereas Japan had the lowest rating (41%)," says the study. Study statistics reveal a 20% jump in disapproval rates was linked to a 93% increase in terrorist attacks from 2004 to 2008. While the results can't explain individual terrorist motivations, say the authors, "public opinion appears to provide a useful indicator of terrorist activity."

"I think that this analysis is important and provides a piece of the puzzle," says intelligence expert Paul Pillar of Georgetown University. "The main thing is that it argues against views expressed by former President Bush and others that terrorists hate us because of our freedom and values, not our policies. This research refutes that."

Increased "disapproval of another country’s leaders and policies could result in more terrorist incidents for at least two reasons," says the study. First, greater disapproval could lead to more people funding and encouraging terrorists. Second, "a shift in public disapproval could increase the number of people willing to join terrorist cells and carry out terrorist acts."

"The implication is the effect of everything we do in a region like the Middle East has a public opinion effect associated with (terrorism)," Pillar says. While U.S. support of Israel and other unpopular policies in the Middle East may be unchangeable for reasons of domestic politics, he adds, "that doesn't mean we shouldn't have our eyes open about their effects."

The election of Barack Obama -- who opposed the war in Iraq, criticized the use of torture and detention of alleged terrorists at Guantanamo Bay, and offered to engage in “aggressive personal diplomacy” with leaders of Middle Eastern countries " -- offers a test of the study results, conclude the authors. "Will changes in terrorist activity accompany changes in public sentiment toward the United States, if public sentiment does indeed change?" the study asks. Link...